Why You Need to Aromat Yourself to Benefit from the China-Kenya Billions

FACT: Grants – 18.6 billion. Loans – 146.8 billion. Total 165.4 billion.
ANOTHER INTERESTING FACT: In 2013, Kenya paid an import bill worth 182 billion to China against export receipts of 4.2 billion. This is one of the largest trade imbalances ever reported in Kenya.

China-Africa Trade by sector

HOW AND WHY YOU NEED TO AROMAT YOURSELF

Position yourself to gain immensely from the billions that will soon flow from China to our beautiful country. Expect the monthly reports from the Central Bank of Kenya and Kenya National Bureau of Statistics to report massive expansion of the economy. Expect GDP rate to rise due to increased infrastructural development and direct injection of billions into key economic sectors. Imagine the combined effect of billions flowing into infrastructure, agriculture, and lately even sports, culture, heritage, and wildlife conservation. Heaven! Kenya’s dream of being a middle income country (at least on paper) will be achieved. We should all stand along Thika Superhighway and sing the Chinese anthem. Here is a copy.

Chinese anthem

Expect most of the projects to fail because of cobbled-up feasibility studies and lack of connection between some projects and their economic viability. Delete these terms from your everyday discussions about the aspirations of Kenya: democracy, equity, transparency, integrity, anti-corruption. Add more words to this list.
Expect an expanded class of corrupt individuals. Soon we’ll stop talking about ‘grand’ corruption and scour the dictionary for a new word that will aptly capture the level of degeneration of our political elites will become. Know that Kenyans will be toothless to help themselves against this new class of mandarins. This should not come as a surprise. It has happened before.

Now don’t forget that these are loans. So naturally expect our public debt to GDP ratio to continue to rise, until the proportion of external debt becomes so huge and unsustainable, so much so that our government officials will be in constant knees begging the Chinese not to crack the whip when we cannot pay our loans on time. Once we have achieved this level of ass-sweating and beggary, expect the Chinese to buy Kenya, buy everything meaningful in Kenya. Expect them to call your President and berate him harshly, then make him appear with the Chinese ambassador smiling on the front yard of Statehouse and announce yet another Chinese deal. And I almost forgot, please forget you discovered oil in Turkana. Erase it from your memory. You will not gain from it. Again do not be surprised. Kenyans are not alone in this. Many African countries have expanded their throat for Chinese loans. They’ll all bloat when indigestion begins. Expect a thunderous continental fart of clueless Presidents.

The growing China-Africa trade

Note that the government has been, for lack of a better word, doctoring data to give the impression that we have a limitless ability to absorb and pay debt. Know that this is a lie. The only option that will be available to the government when the external debt crowds out investments from the private sector, increases inflation, and negatively impacts on our debt sustainability – is to increase taxes. If the borrowings increase, expect the prices of basic commodities to shoot to the sun. Imagine buying a 2kg Jogoo Unga maize meal at Shs 1000. Sounds affordable yeah? That is Vision 2030. You will literally rip off and chew metal from the railways and bite off bitumen from super superhighways. All Ugali-loving folks will revert back to the original Ugali, the one that does not pass through the supermarkets shelves and has 100% corn. Don’t talk about bread and sugar. Milk? Cooking fat? Stop kidding me. Most of us will not afford it. And while we are at it, consider having a kitchen garden for fresh produce or a hanging garden of Babylon on your balcony if you’re apartmented.

The positive side to the inflow is that hungry Kenyans will enjoy the sight of modern trains (screaming on the front page of Saturday Nation or Standard) and cleanly paved 20-lane highways (in political speeches in Narok, Kisumu, and Busia in 2017). So what should you do? Aromat yourself. Position yourself to tap the billions when they land here. How should you do it? Begin infiltrating the right money circles. You might consider participating in corrupt politically approved deals once in a while as a way of making your bones in this new economy. Go back to school, learn Chinese. Are you pregnant? Consider naming your child Yao Ming Otieno or Bingbing Muthoni or Li Keqiang Kiprotich.

Align your business to these new developments. Register a company. When the deal is too good, grab it before the next competitor does. The new Kenya will force you to be rich to be happy. Only the rich will enjoy the re-colonization of Kenya. Same script, different cast. Enjoy the show.

But don’t forget to reformat your dreams today. Let’s learn how we can position ourselves to eat. At least we can try.

NB: This message may apply to all Africans.
*Aromat – A spice which makes food sing on the plate.